Bitcoin: 5 Technical Signals Suggesting the Bottom Is Near

The worst June since 2022 gives way to a glimmer of hope

June 2026 will be remembered as one of Bitcoin's most brutal months. With a drop of over 15%, it was the worst June since the Terra collapse in 2022. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an all-time record of $4.5 billion in net outflows during the month, eclipsing the $1.25 billion raised by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) over the same period.

Yet in early July, several major technical signals are converging for the first time since the 2022 bear cycle. Bitcoin is trading around $62,000, after hitting a low of $57,000 the previous week. Should we see this as a genuine bottom signal?

1. TD9 Signal: the first since July 2022

The Tom DeMark Sequential (TD9) indicator has just printed a bullish reversal signal on Bitcoin's weekly chart. This is the first such signal since July 2022 — when Bitcoin marked its cycle bottom around $17,600 before rallying toward $69,000.

TD9 identifies trend exhaustion. Nine consecutive candles closing below (for a buy signal) or above (for a sell signal) the 4-period moving average trigger the alert. Historically, this indicator has been remarkably reliable on Bitcoin, with a success rate exceeding 70% on weekly timeframes.

2. Bollinger Bands: a "W" pattern in formation

John Bollinger, creator of the famous volatility bands bearing his name, recently commented on Bitcoin's current structure. According to him, the price is drawing a characteristic "W" pattern that traditionally marks the end of a bear market.

This pattern occurs when the price bounces twice off the lower Bollinger Band, forming a double bottom. The first bottom corresponds to the $57,000 low, and the second is currently confirming at a slightly higher level. Full validation requires a close above the middle band, situated around $64,000.

3. Profit/loss ratio at a 43-month low

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin's realized profit/loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level in 43 months. This means the majority of recent transactions were executed at a loss — a classic sign of capitulation.

This metric measures the ratio between profits and losses realized across all investors. Historically, when this ratio drops to extremely low levels, it coincides with durable bottom zones. In November 2022, this same signal preceded a rally of over 300% across 12 months.

4. Supply metric: buy signal for the first time since late 2022

Another powerful signal comes from on-chain analysis: Bitcoin's supply indicator is printing its first buy signal since Q4 2022. This indicator measures the proportion of Bitcoin held by long-term versus short-term investors.

When long-term holders accumulate massively — as is currently the case — it signals strong conviction that current prices represent a buying opportunity. Swan CEO Cory Klippsten notes that supply held by long-term investors is reaching record levels, which he sees as an early bottom signal.

5. The spectacular ETF return: +$222 million in a single day

Perhaps the most encouraging sign comes from institutional markets. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $222 million in net inflows in a single day — the first time this $200 million threshold has been crossed since May 2026.

This reversal is all the more remarkable given it follows the worst month in Bitcoin ETF history. In June, net outflows reached $4.5 billion, an absolute record since these products launched in January 2024. The fact that institutional investors are returning to buy at these levels sends a clear confidence message about long-term market structure.

Metaplanet and sovereign funds: smart money conviction

This institutional dynamic extends beyond ETFs. Metaplanet, often dubbed the "Japanese MicroStrategy," acquired an additional 2,823 BTC, bringing its total holdings beyond 43,000 BTC. Meanwhile, MidChains' CEO revealed that sovereign funds see Bitcoin's current discount as a strategic entry point.

This smart money accumulation contrasts sharply with the extreme fear measured by the Fear & Greed Index, which remains anchored in "extreme fear" territory. Historically, this type of divergence — where institutions buy while retail sentiment is at rock bottom — precedes the most spectacular rallies.

What could invalidate the bullish scenario

However, not all signals are green. Bitcoin's put/call ratio has just hit its highest level in a year, suggesting options traders are heavily hedging against a drop toward $55,000. A renowned analyst also warns that BTC could still drop toward $52,000 before genuinely reversing the trend.

Macroeconomic data plays an ambiguous role. Disappointing US employment statistics pushed Bitcoin higher (hopes of rate cuts), but a US dollar reaching 40-year highs against the Japanese yen could weigh on risk assets. Liquidity also remains thinner in early Q3 2026, according to Talos, though leverage has been significantly reduced.

Verdict: technical bottom yes, but caution warranted

The simultaneous convergence of five major technical signals — TD9, Bollinger W, historically low profit/loss ratio, on-chain buy signal, ETF return — is a rare event. The last time this many indicators aligned bullishly, Bitcoin had just marked its $17,600 bottom.

However, crypto markets have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to invalidate even the most robust signals. The $57,000-$60,000 zone appears to constitute solid short-term support, but a break below $55,000 would likely negate most of these formations.

For investors, the classic DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy seems particularly relevant in this context: gradually accumulating while keeping capital for potential further dips. Caution remains essential, but the data increasingly points to a favorable risk/reward asymmetry.

⚠️ Warning: Trading and investing carry risks. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before investing.